Is Kyle Pitts' new contract an overpay? A deep dive into the Falcons' monster deal

Three years and $54 million. That's how much the Falcons decided to pay Kyle Pitts Sr. on a long-term basis after hitting him with the franchise tag earlier this offseason. The $18 million a year deal makes Pitts the third highest paid tight end in the NFL, just a tad behind George Kittle and Trey McBride.

There is plenty of justification for Pitts landing such a large deal. Since 2023, Pitts ranks 7th in receptions, 4th in yards and 14th in touchdowns among all tight ends. As a receiving threat, there are few tight ends in the league who are as good as the Falcons pass catcher.

His production over those three seasons: 188 catches, 2,197 yards and 12 touchdowns bear a striking similarity to three other tight ends who have signed deals since 2020.

Kyle Pitts deserves the contract extension the Falcons gave him

Pitts doesn't top the group in any specific area. He's the second youngest while ranking third in catches, second in yards and yards per route run while bringing up the rear in touchdowns. That makes the group a good cross-section of comps. The cap-adjusted APY of the three players this comparison profiles is $17.96 million per year, or just a fraction off of the $18 million APY his deal comes in at.

From this standpoint, Pitts' deal is perfectly justifiable...if we are measuring the position only by their receiving production. But as a blocker and an in-line threat Pitts has always left something to be desired within his position group. His three-year weighted run block grade, as measure by Pro Football Focus, trails the other three by a solid margin.

And that has always been the knock on Pitts. Is he really a tight end, or more of a glorified power slot receiver. His 33.5% snap share in-line trails both Hockenson (44.1%) and Hooper (49.6%) by a considerable margin, while Gesicki trails even Pitts at just 12.6% in-line snap share.

And as Gesicki has shown with his past contracts, the NFL has traditionally paid specialized tight ends at a depressed market rates. High-end blocking tight ends like Minnesota's Josh Oliver have topped out at about $8 million per year, while Gesicki and his ilk (Jonnu Smith, Evan Engram) have gone as high as $12 million APY.

Pitts has entered and surpassed the echelon of the "do-it-all, everything is on the table" market. He is truly being compensated as one of the elite tight ends in the NFL. Or is he?

Kyle Pitts is basically the Falcons' WR2

Following the logic of him being a glorified power slot I wanted to look at Pitts within the context of receiver production. Using the same three-year production period, Pitts' receiver comps are Christian Kirk (2019-2021), Russell Gage (2019-2021) and Michael Gallup (2019-2022).

The average of those three receivers is 180 receptions, 2,236 yards, 12 touchdowns with an average of 1.55 yards per route run. That lands incredibly close to Pitts' production line. The cap-adjusted average of those three players' deals is just a hair over $19 million.

Admittedly, that is being pulled up significantly by Kirk, whose deal was widely considered an overpay at the time. But looking through other production windows (two-year and platform year) bring up similar cap-adjusted averages. If he were simply classified as a wide receiver, Pitts' production justifies an $18 million APY valuation.

While fans of Pitts will argue he is an elite tight end worthy of top-tier tight end pay, his detractors will counter that he's not a complete player when it comes to his listed position and overpaid as a result. The truth lies somewhere in the middle. The Falcons recognize him for what he is at his core - a strong secondary option in the passing game. And those players go for about $18 million per year in today's market. And in that, Pitts is fairly compensated with his new deal.

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