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Michael Penix Jr.'s return has a brutal reality setting in for Tua Tagovailoa

No more redemption arc.
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Tua Tagovailoa
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Tua Tagovailoa | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Atlanta Falcons' quarterback battle is back to being a competition. After months of Tua Tagovailoa being labeled the runaway favorite to win the starting job, he's failed to truly run away with the opportunity, especially following a lackluster debut in Atlanta's preseason opener last weekend.

In recent weeks, it's started to become clear Tagovailoa doesn't have what it takes to be a starter in this league--and now he likely won't be. Michael Penix Jr. was cleared to return to full contact on Saturday afternoon, and he will take part in 11-on-11s for the first time during Monday's practice.

And now that Penix is back, that inevitable label is gone. It's time to split first-team reps in practice until Kevin Stefanski names an official starter, and while Tua has the reps advantage, every other factor is weighing against him--even though this new Atlanta coaching staff chose to sign him.

The Falcons have no reason not to start a fully healthy Michael Penix Jr.

Honestly, the Falcons really only signed Tua Tagovailoa to prevent any Armageddon scenario from happening. Had Penix's return taken longer than expected or he suffered a setback, they would've felt comfortable starting him Week 1, but since Week 1 is three weeks away, he should be good to start.

Stefanski and the Dirty Birds are going to label it a "competition" as to not rush Michael Penix Jr. back, but we don't need to be Sherlock Holmes to have to read between the lines here. We know what direction this is headed. It seems like the 28-year-old won't get the redemption arc he was looking for.

Ever since the Falcons hired him, Kevin Stefanski has made it clear that this staff wants to see things through with a healthy Penix. As long as he's healthy the former top-10 pick has the higher upside of the QBs, and there's still reason to believe he can be a franchise quarterback with better coaching.

Tagovailoa signed with the Falcons on a one-year deal for the league minimum. That isn't exactly starter money. Meanwhile, Penix has two years left on his rookie deal, and if he turns things around in 2026, you pick up his fifth-year option. There's no incentive not to give him a shot. If he fails, you draft someone in 2027.

While the former Pro Bowler could thrive in a better situation in Atlanta, training camp has proved that nothing has changed. Tua has struggled to adjust to the offense and his turnover woes followed him from Miami. He still looks like a bottom-of-the-league passer and not much more than a bridge guy.

This Falcons' coaching staff is the perfect braintrust to help Michael Penix Jr. thrive, and if he re-establishes himself as a franchise quarterback in a pivotal season, no one has more to lose than Tua Tagovailoa--especially now that he's been cleared for 11-on-11s with time to spare before Week 1 .

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