Ever since Michael Penix Jr. revealed that he was still weeks away from being cleared on the first day of training camp, fans took it as a sign that Tua Tagovailoa was destined to be the Atlanta Falcons' Week 1 starting quarterback--and it's started to look like it was headed in that direction anyways.
The notion that Falcons fans has accepted is that Tua will offer the franchise more stability in the short-term--which will also offer Penix more time to get healthy in hopes of eventually taking over. But the fact of the matter is that Atlanta is better off in a scenario where Michael Penix Jr. starts Week 1.
We all know by now that the 26-year-old is rehabbing from an ACL tear suffered in November, and health is his biggest roadblock in turning things around. But here's the cold hard truth: even with the rehab, Penix has more of a fighting chance to be the Falcons' Week 1 starter than we may realize.
Michael Penix Jr. offers the Atlanta Falcons more long-term upside than Tua Tagovailoa
A few days ago, it looked like Penix and Tua were in very similar spots injury-wise. Tagovailoa has been limited in practice due to a flare-up in his back (though he participated in 11-on-11s on Monday), and there is a real argument to make that the third-year man was the healthier of the two.
Other than not participating in 11-on-11s, the former top-10 pick has been doing everything else. He's been throwing since mid-March, and has been taking part in 7-on-7s, where he's been lighting it up across the last few days--proving that the high-upside passer we've been waiting for is still in there.
The Dirty Birds signed Tua for the league minimum to be insurance. That's bridge starter money. Meanwhile, they invested a first-round pick in Penix less than three years ago. They have more investment in his future because he's the player who will ultimately determine their long-term plans at QB, not Tagovailoa.
The Falcons have a lot more to gain long-term if Michael Penix Jr. wins the job. Not including the fifth-year option, he still has two seasons left on his rookie deal, so if he turns things around you finally found your franchise quarterback. If not, you draft someone early on in the 2027 NFL Draft.
Kevin Stefanski has made it clear making it clear they plan to be precautionary with both signal-callers given their injury histories, but all offseason long it's been clear Atlanta wants to see things through with Penix--the Falcons want to evaluate who Penix is with a better staff once healthy.
As long as Michael Penix Jr. is fully healthy, all bets are off. All he needs to do is be on par with Tua Tagovailoa to win the starting job, because it's obvious which quarterback offers the Atlanta Falcons more long-term upside.
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