Raheem Morris’ history suggests Falcons’ playoff hopes aren’t dead just yet

The Falcons’ playoff odds are hanging by a thread. At 3-6, every game from here on out feels like a must-win, and the math certainly doesn’t favor them. In fact, ESPN gives them just a 3.8% chance of making the playoffs and a 1.6% chance to win the NFC South.

But if history offers any comfort, it’s that Raheem Morris has been here before, and he’s found his way out twice before.

Atlanta’s overtime loss to the Colts dropped them further behind the NFC’s middle pack, their fourth straight defeat in a season that’s been defined by narrow misses and self-inflicted wounds.

Raheem Morris' track records suggest there is reason for Falcons fans to be hopeful (but not much)

Drake London has tried to carry the offense with his four TDs across the last weeks and back-to-back 100-yard games, which is more total production in that span than any Atlanta receiver has managed in five seasons. 

And still, it came amidst a four-game losing streak.

“It’s time to get over the hump,” London said after the loss, and the exhaustion in his voice matched the film. Atlanta’s last two opponents are 16-4 combined, and the Falcons fell to them by seven total points. 

Playoff-caliber flashes keep showing up. Sustained playoff-caliber football does not.

"It's frustrating, you know," Falcons linebacker Kaden Elliss said. "I know this is a very capable team — us. I know we're talented. I know we've got coaches that work extremely hard and put good game plans together, and we got players that can go out and execute. But right now, it's just not happening consistently enough. So, it stings. It hurts."

And while at 3-6 hope is getting thin, Morris did help the 2023 Rams rip off a 7-1 run after the same start. Before that, he was on Washington’s 2012 staff when they ripped off seven straight wins from the exact same 3-6 hole.

Looking at this Falcons team, there’s no reason they can’t follow the same late-season path Raheem Morris has seen before as long as they fix three simple, but critical, problems.

1. The Red Zone Issue: Atlanta ranked 29th in red-zone offense through Week 7. Since Week 8, they’ve been second league-wide. They need to keep that up to stay competitive.
2. Third Down Crash: Just as the red zone came alive, the Falcons’ third-down offense collapsed (they went from ninth to dead last). In the last two games the Falcons are 1-for-18 on 3rd down (worst conversion rate over two games in the NFL since 2011). 
3. A Defense Better Than the Scoreboard: It’s easy to look at the yardage totals and assume the defense is part of the problem, but that’s not the case. The unit has been keeping Atlanta competitive even as the offense faltered. Explosive plays have hurt them most - clean those up.

This team has talent, and Morris isn’t pretending otherwise. “We’ll respond. We’ll find a way to win this game next week,” he said Sunday, leaning on a formula he’s seen succeed twice. 

One thing is clear: The turnaround must start now., and luckily, the schedule is about to get a whole lot easier starting in Week 11.