The Atlanta Falcons have an elite, special player on their hands in Bijan Robinson, who has done nothing but eat up yards, get into the endzone, and cement himself as one of the very best players in the NFL after three seasons.
Believe it or not, he's already eligible for a contract extension, which could end up being a historic deal. Just turning 24 years old earlier this year, Robinson has amassed 5,648 scrimmage yards, 34 touchdowns, and multiple Pro Bowls and an All-Pro.
He had the best year of his career in 2025, running for 1,478 yards and hauling in 79 receptions for 820 yards. This type of dual-threat production is really something only generational players can attain. Robinson has also not missed a game thus far and averages 1,883 scrimmage yards per 17-game season thus far. The next massive thing here, though, is a contract extension, but what might that look like?
Predicting a contract extension for Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson
The running back market is in a solid spot, but there are a ton of running backs right now who are not really getting paid what they're truly worth. However, the market has always been a bit lower than expected, as this position is one where teams can find almost immediate production, so there's always a risk in paying a running back.
The shelf life of these players is also shorter than most positions, but there are teams who have reaped the benefits of paying top-dollar for a running back. Right now, the highest-valued running back contract belongs to Josh Jacobs, at $48 million. Saquon Barkley is the leader in average annual value, at $20.6 million per year. Barkley also leads the guarantees, at $36 million.
It's safe to say that Robinson is going to surpass all of those numbers. Let's start with the length. Many contracts, whether free agency signings or in-house extensions are typically four years long, but there is a catch.
In many instances, teams may sign a player to a four-year deal, but that deal typically has an 'out' after three seasons. Every NFL team still considers their own financial wellbeing when doing these deals, as teams don't want to get tied down on a long contract with a player who suddenly regresses.
Seeing as Robinson is only set to enter his age-24 season, I believe a four-year deal is appropriate here. Let's talk about the per-year value now. The leader in this category, as we mentioned, is Barkley at $20.6 million per year. Given how much the NFL salary cap has exploded in recent years, and the fact that Robinson is the best running back in the NFL, there is an easy, realistic path for him to 'reset' the market.
Not only will Robinson surpass this per-year mark, but he could blow it out of the water. Remember, Robinson is not only an elite rusher, but he's got a ton of upside as a pass-catcher, too. You are essentially paying him to play two positions.
When players reset the market at their respective positions, a small jump in the per-year amount is typically what happens, and it's usually nothing like we saw from Tyler Linderbaum, who reset the center market by a major amount. Bijan could do this, but so can Jahmyr Gibbs and De'Von Achane.
We could realistically place Robinson above $20.6 million per season, but not too much. A $23 million per-year amount is a modest amount to strive for, as it rewards Robinson but does not unrealistically blow anything out of the water.
A four-year extension worth $23 million per year comes out to $92 million in total value. The total guaranteed amount is a very important factor here, too. He'll also be in line to reset the total guarantees as well. In fact, he could flirt with $50 million in guarantees given how much he could get paid.
All of those numbers might seem a bit on the high side, but the Falcons being in a position to pay this much money to a player is a good thing. Robinson is a generational player who is going to get paid generational money. A four-year deal worth $92 million and containing $50 million in guarantees could be something he signs for, or close to.