There were countless reasons the Atlanta Falcons fired former offensive coordinator Zac Robinson this past offseason. For starters, Kevin Stefanski wanted to bring in his own play-caller in Tommy Rees, but for an offense that had as much talent as the Falcons did, things were an absolute mess.
Robinson was brought in to develop Michael Penix Jr. and help him reach his potential, but instead, he ended up setting his development back. He kept having him line up out of the pistol rather than under center and never dialed up play-action looks although play-action was where Penix was at his best.
Suffice it to say, Rees, who is actually catering the offense to Penix's strengths, has been a considerable upgrade. To the surprise of many Falcons fans, Robinson landed another OC job with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, where many of the red flags he had in Atlanta have followed him south.
Zac Robinson's offense is just as predictable in Tampa Bay as it was in Atlanta
The 40-year-old was always great at designing run concepts--especially now that he's diversified his scheme beyond wide zone-- but his passing concepts are downright horrendous .This was the case with the Falcons and now it's happening again with the Bucs as he doesn't even try to air it out.
According to SumerSports, the Bucs rank seventh in the NFL in EPA per run and 31st in EPA per pass through seven weeks of 2026, and while a lot of this can be attributed to starting UDFA Jalon Daniels over Baker Mayfield for three games, the pass game hasn't even been that great with Baker starting.
He is so predictable. Whenever he wanted to get out of a jam with the Dirty Birds, he would find a way to feed Bijan Robinson. Nobody's blaming him for that, because that's not weird, but when you have the best running back in the NFL in your backfield, you should use that to set up the play-action.
This same thing has happened in Tampa Bay, as according to The Football Database, the Bucs run the football the seventh-most in the NFL. In their' 43-13 blowout win over the Panthers in Week 7 (in Mayfield's return to the lineup), they ran the ball 49 times while Baker had just 11 pass attempts.
This team's identity is to pound the rock, but when they're placed in positions to throw, things go awry--which is why they have lost so many close games this season.
The Falcons can exploit Zac Robinson's run-heavy tendencies in Week 8
Zac Robinson has a chance to get his revenge on the Falcons this weekend, but like Raheem Morris this past week, that'll be easier said than done. This roster should be well-versed in how his offense works, and given the problems are the same, Jeff Ulbrich can capitalize on those red flags on Sunday.
Unlike the Panthers, who boast the NFL's worst run defense and are easy to run wild against, the Falcons have the fourth-best run defense. LaCale London leads the NFL in run-stop win rate, and while Bucky Irving is a good running back, he has struggled at points against stacked boxes.
If the Falcons want to exploit this, it comes down to making plays before contact and bullying this Tampa Bay offensive line. Rookie linebacker Kendal Daniels was an absolute dog in Week 7, and given he's been one of the team's better run defender, he needs to make plays at the line of scrimmage.
The more often the Falcons stack the box and only allow minimal gains on early downs, the more often the Bucs are going to have to throw it on third and medium or third and long. And given Baker is clearly not 100%, that's not the way Robinson wants to beat his old team--or any team for that matter.
The Atlanta Falcons need to remember that a zebra never changes his stripes and that Zac Robinson's offense is just as predictable now as it was a year ago. And while the 2-5 Bucs are going to be a tough out, facing a Robinson offense that's basically the same will be a point in their favor.
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