The Atlanta Falcons have finished last in the NFC South just four times since the division was formed in 2002 (2003, 2007, 2020, and 2022). However, they have also won it just four times, with their last division title coming in 2016.
When looking at their 2026 team, things are anything but certain. We don't know how this new coaching staff will utilize what is a talented team on paper.
The division has also been the league's most volatile over the past four years, with the division winners having a 35-37 combined record during that span. Safe to say, we have no idea where the 2026 season will lead for the Dirty Birds.
Atlanta Falcons are all over the place in NFC South standings predictions
The media has no idea how to evaluate the NFC South. The division that had been "dominated" by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers from 2021 to 2024 went to the Carolina Panthers in a three-way tie last season.
There is a case to be made for any combination of standings. And many believe it will include the Falcons finishing dead last. Bleacher Report's Moe Moton believes this is the NFC South's worst team because of its lack of momentum.
"In the NFC South, the Falcons have less momentum than the Carolina Panthers and the New Orleans Saints heading into the 2026 season," Moton wrote "The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have enough talent on both sides of the ball to bounce back from an 8-9 record in the previous year. Atlanta drops to the bottom of the division with five or six wins."
Those are valid points; the Falcons don't have the same concrete trajectory as the other three teams.
While they had the same record as the division-winning Panthers last season, they still didn't win it because the Panthers swept them. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have proven they can win the South, while the Saints are gaining traction.
The case to be made for the Falcons is their talent. Arguably, they have the most talented team among the four. But as we have seen, that only gets you so far. Kevin Stefanski is tasked with putting together what Arthur Smith and Raheem Morris couldn't.
Obviously, Moton mentioned the quarterback situation, calling it a group of "two mid-to-low-tier starting quarterbacks."
Yes, that is true as we stand now. However, we can't miss the fact that Tua Tagovailoa has shown he can be a high-quality quarterback. Michael Penix Jr. is also a first-round talent with an arm that can match any in the league.
Hopefully, the Falcons will prove everyone wrong by winning their first division title since their special 2016 season.
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