The Atlanta Falcons knew keeping linebacker Kaden Elliss wouldn’t be simple. But in the latest projection from ESPN analyst Aaron Schatz the stakes from difficult to potentially catastrophic. In a league-wide free agency preview, Schatz projected one signing for every team, and paired Elliss with the Carolina Panthers as their “best match.”
Schatz’s logic is straightforward. Carolina needs an upgrade at inside linebacker next to Trevin Wallace. Elliss has topped 100 tackles in each of the last three seasons. He’s arguably the league’s most effective blitzing off-ball linebacker.
Then came the twist that should make Atlanta uncomfortable: “As an added bonus, signing Elliss would take away from a division rival.” That rival, of course, is Atlanta.
Losing Elliss in free agency is one thing. Losing him to an NFC South opponent that sees him as both an upgrade and subtraction would sting at an entirely different level.
Kaden Elliss leaving the Falcons for the Carolina Panthers into free agency would send Atlanta into a frenzy
Falcons defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich hasn’t been subtle about Elliss’ value.
“I would love Kaden back. I think we all would,” Ulbrich said. “He is one of the most amazing human beings I’ve been around from a character standpoint.”
The praise didn’t stop there. Ulbrich described Elliss as an “elite communicator” and “mental processor,” adding that he has never had a line of scrimmage player essentially run the defense the way Elliss has in Atlanta’s system.
“To replace Kaden would take more than one human being.”
Over three seasons in Atlanta, Elliss started every game of his contract, piling up 380 tackles, 12.5 sacks, two interceptions, two forced fumbles and a fumble recovery. And now, Carolina sees that same versatility as the missing piece in its own rebuild.
Elliss signed a three year, $21.5 million deal with Atlanta in 2023… His next contract will almost certainly exceed that value. Projections have him landing in the $9-12 million per year range, with Spotrac estimating a three year deal around $26.9 million.
That’s significant for a Falcons team balancing roster transition and cap flexibility. General manager Ian Cunningham acknowledged as much at the NFL Combine.
“He’s a free agent. We will see how that goes moving forward,” Cunningham said. “He’s a guy we’re evaluating. We feel like there are a lot of linebackers in this market, feel like we really have to look at our cap situation and our roster moving forward.”
Meanwhile, Carolina is projected to have the financial flexibility to make the move work, especially if it restructures or makes additional cuts. If Elliss walks, the Falcons would not only be replacing a stat sheet. They’d be reconstructing the emotional and intellectual core of their defense.
If he signs in Carolina, they’d be watching that core operate twice a year in direct opposition. The nightmare scenario is no longer hypothetical. It’s projected. Now the Falcons must decide how badly they want to prevent it.