Drafting a bunch of top-ten talents on offense is all well and good, until you have to pay them.
The Atlanta Falcons went four straight years drafting an offensive playmaker in the first round, who they will eventually have to start paying.
While it is a problem that is still a few years away, it is worth diving into what the financials could look like for this franchise later this decade.
Falcons must prepare to hand out some monstrous offensive contracts down the road
The Falcons went on an offensive drafting spree between 2021 and 2024, drafting Kyle Pitts No. 4 overall, and Drake London, Bijan Robinson, and Michael Penix Jr. No. 8 overall.
Having that young core come together for the 2025 season is exciting. But what isn't exciting is thinking about the inevitable contract drama that is to come.
Starting with Pitts, let's be honest, his chances of landing a second contract in Atlanta are slim-to-none. The Falcons will likely let him walk next offseason because of the contracts they have to prepare for down the road.
But let's just ponder what a second deal could look like. If he has a breakout year in 2025, his deal could exceed $50 million over four years, landing him in Mark Andrews and David Njoku territory, while falling well short of George Kittle's top-of-the-market four-year, $76.4-million deal.
If he tears up the league and asserts himself as a top-three player at his position, then maybe he could land a deal that starts with a '7.'
Drake London will probably be the next player extended by the Falcons, and his deal will land in the Garrett Wilson range of four years, $130 million.
That is, if Terry Fontenot can get a deal done before the season. If he doesn't, he risks London skyrocketing his asking price with a massive season.
For now though, my prediction is that he signs for four years, $135 million ($33.75M AAV).
Bijan Robinson would be up next, as he would be eligible for an extension after the 2025 regular season.
His contract is where things get hairy. It is almost impossible to predict the running back market, but I will do my best.
Bijan's importance to the offense, ability to stay healthy, and dynamic talents will land him a record-breaking deal. Most likely, the Falcons will elect to extend him after his fourth season, which lands us in 2027.
There really aren't any guys who will reset the running back market between now and then. Basically, the Falcons' goal should be extending him before the Lions extend Jamyr Gibbs.
I predict he will sign a four-year, $96M extension ($24M AAV) before the 2027 season.
And, finally, Michael Penix Jr., who requires a lot of guessing. We will go off the assumption that Penix Jr. hits his upside and becomes a top-five or -ten quarterback.
The numbers by the time he is due for a new deal will be astronomical; the market at the position is constantly growing each year.
Based on recent trends, he could land a six-year, $420M extension in 2028, worth $70M annually.
For the sake of the franchise's success, we certainly hope that's what his asking price will be.
Falcons could have an unfathomable amount of money tied up in their offense by 2028
Putting all these predictions together, the trio of Drake London, Bijan Robinson, and Michael Penix Jr. would be playing on their extensions together in 2028 and 2029, with their salaries looking like this:
- Drake London: $33.75M
- Bijan Robinson: $24M
- Michael Penix Jr.: $70M
If you want to add Kyle Pitts in there, his would be something like $13M.
Obviously, these contracts would be structured to help manipulate the cap, which makes it impossible to predict. But, for reference, the projected salary cap should be around $300M.
Those three contracts add up to $127.75M, or $140.75M with Pitts.
Like I said, the Atlanta Falcons will have an issue on their hands in the coming years. Fortunately, there are creative ways the franchise can afford their key offensive pieces.