The argument is simple: Kyle Pitts will be far too overvalued in free agency for the Atlanta Falcons to keep this offseason. NFL.com's Kevin Patra's assessment is correct. Despite his four TDs and 469 yards in his final six games of 2025, Pitts is not the elite tight end he looked like for a month and a half.
His free agency value spiked drastically after his elite final six weeks, but this is nowhere near his real value. PFF predicts his offseason contract will be somewhere in the neighborhood of three-years, $48 million, which is $16 million a year. A contract of this AAV would be absolute insanity for Pitts, especially after a season playing on the franchise tag.
This AAV would place Pitts as the fifth-highest-paid tight end year over year in the NFL, which is not deserved whatsoever. No player should be able to make four years of mediocrity disappear over the span of six weeks, not even the ex-fourth overall pick who was looked at as a generational prospect.
Even on the franchise tag, Kyle Pitts is not worth $16 million a year, and he proved it across the last five seasons
In case you've been under a rock the last four years, Pitts has been the biggest draft disappointment in recent memory. Since his Pro-Bowl rookie campaign in 2021, he's been used poorly and never broken out as an elite tight end, so suggesting Kevin Stefanski will unlock him is just speculation.
Even on terrible Falcons teams with little-to-no-playmakers, the Florida product couldn't break out. He had the opportunity to be the second main target sharer over the last four seasons, but couldn't make an impact until late in 2025.
The only reason for his stellar few weeks was Drake London's injury that cost him a month of 2025. While London was mending from an injury, Pitts became the No. 1 option and the only option in the Falcons passing game, which saw him destroy the Bucs. But London returned, Pitts fell back to earth.
Not only is Pitts a perennially mediocre tight end, but the contract projection is also insane. Compared to his peers, Pitts has similar career production to Evan Engram, Dallas Goedert, and Dalton Schultz. All three of those tight ends have contracts of $12 million AAV or less.
If $16 million a year is truly his value, there is no reason Atlanta should even try to create a reunion. The Falcons are much better off drafting a tight end in the third or fourth round, or even picking up someone in free agency.
The aforementioned Goedert has produced much more consistently than Pitts, would be cheaper, and is a free agent this offseason. Other players like might provide more consistency than Pitts, so like Patra said, extending him is a major gamble for Atlanta's new regime.