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New Falcons QB battle prediction has a consensus beginning to take shape

The competition predictions continue!
Feb 24, 2026; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Atlanta Falcons coach Kevin Stefanski speaks at the NFL Scouting Combine at the Indiana Convention Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
Feb 24, 2026; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Atlanta Falcons coach Kevin Stefanski speaks at the NFL Scouting Combine at the Indiana Convention Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

All eyes have been on the quarterback position since the Atlanta Falcons signed Tua Tagovailoa in March.

Coming from the Miami Dolphins, Tagovailoa has been a grizzled veteran who took the inconsistent franchise to multiple playoffs. However, he is competing with a talented third-year quarterback returning from injury in Michael Penix Jr. The competition feels like a toss-up.

While predicting some of the biggest position battles of the summer, Bleacher Report's Gary Davenport took a stab at guessing the winner the Falcons' QB battle, predicting Kevin Stefanski will roll with the veteran in Week 1 against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Tua Tagovailoa is becoming the favorite to be the Falcons' starting QB

The talk will continue throughout training camp and preseason. This position battle will go down to the wire, especially since the Falcons want to give the still-rehabbing Penix Jr. a fair shot.

Gary Davenport highlights Kevin Stefanski's quote that backs that up:

"I think it's our job—I think [offensive coordinator] Tommy Rees does an outstanding job of making sure that we're intentional about how we want this to operate. One guy will be up first one period and then switch with the next period and rotate every single day and really almost every drill because the truth is we're trying to get the best version of all of our players, so we want to mix and match guys in different spots."

Davenport points out that while Penix Jr. had a solid second season before his injury, Tua's prior excellence could give him the edge come September.

"Penix was better in 2025 than in his rookie season, but his injury isn't the only thing leaving him facing an uphill battle," Davenport wrote. "As recently as two years ago, Tagovailoa led the league in completion percentage. The year before that, he paced the NFL with 4,624 passing yards. If Tagovailoa can approach that level of performance in 2026, then he's simply a better quarterback than Penix."

Those are the facts working against Penix Jr. Fans often forget that Tua had some phenomenal, overlooked seasons in Miami. Ultimately, it was his lack of success in cold weather, outside, and the playoffs that doomed him.

Now, he gets to play in a dome for most of the season and plays a mostly warm schedule. Meanwhile, we have to wait for his counterpart to get fully healthy -- who knows when that will happen. Tua has a clear advantage at this point, especially after Stefanski's comments about his accuracy.

All we can ask for is for the best man to win. The new coaching staff doesn't bring an allegiance to either guy and is focused on making the playoffs -- who do they believe gives them the best chance to do that?

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