The Atlanta Falcons have everything they need to compete in the NFC South in 2026. Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Bijan Robinson, a new head coach with a track record of building offenses that work… Well, everything except a quarterback.
Bleacher Report's Kristopher Knox laid out what the ceiling looks like for Atlanta's offense this season and his analysis of the QB situation was blunt:
“The problem was that Kirk Cousins, who is now in Las Vegas, wasn't a long-term answer for Atlanta," Knox wrote. "The Falcons are hoping that this year's QB competition between Michael Penix Jr. and Tua Tagovailoa will yield one—though, according to the team, the competition won't begin until Penix (torn ACL) is healthy.”
The Falcons are betting their season on a QB competition between Michael Penix Jr. and Tua Tagovailoa. But here's the catch… That competition technically hasn't actually even started yet.
"It's tough having a competition when both guys aren't competing at the same level," Van Pelt said. "Really, there is no competition until we can actually evaluate them equally."
Kevin Stefanski is an important variable in deciding the Falcons' QB battle
New head coach Kevin Stefanski brings credibility to this rebuild. He went 45-56 in Cleveland across six seasons, which looks mediocre on paper until you account for what he was working with at quarterback. A complete revolving door of mediocrity sans Baker Mayfield.
That's the cautionary tale Knox flagged in his worst-case scenario: If both Penix and Tua prove to be below-average starters in 2026, Stefanski's offense could fall into the same frustrating patterns it did in Cleveland. Good system, good weapons, no one to throw it.
However, the upside case for Atlanta is a lot better than what Stefanski had in Cleveland… Tua was a top-five overall pick who ranked top five in EPA per dropback three straight seasons (2022-2024) before a rough 2025 in Miami. But the change of scenery has already helped him turn a corner.
Penix flashed real arm talent as a rookie and has the profile of a potential franchise player if the knee heals right. Either one hitting at even 80% of their ceiling makes this offense dangerous.
“If the Falcons have dependable QB play entering the season, they should be playoff contenders this year and for the foreseeable future,” Knox wrote.
Atlanta's best-case scenario is compelling. A healthy, productive quarterback in Stefanski's system, flanked by Robinson, London, and Pitts, is the kind of combination that wins divisions and causes problems in January.
Right now, nobody knows who will be the leader at QB. That's the question everything else is waiting on.
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