With the 2026 NFL schedule set to release on Thursday, it's put things into perspective for the Atlanta Falcons. Perception around the Falcons' results in Year 1 of the Kevin Stefanski era have been all over the place, but in all honesty, their chances of making the playoffs are better than we realize.
Prior to the schedule release, the league released every team's strength of schedule for the 2026 season. Even though the Falcons were believed to have one of the more difficult schedules in football, that's actually not the case if you look at the 2025 winning percentage of their opponents.
Based on opponent winning percentage, Atlanta is tied with the Indianapolis Colts for the fourth-easiest schedule in the NFL, with only the Bengals, Saints, and Browns having easier schedules. So on paper, it shouldn't be all that difficult for Stefanski to lead them to the playoffs in his first season.
Each team’s strength of schedule for the upcoming season ahead of Thursday’s schedule release: pic.twitter.com/81g7PQJ6ee
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) May 12, 2026
Falcons' 2026 strength of schedule can help them snap their playoff drought
The Dirty Birds are only set to face five teams in 2026 who made the playoffs in 2025, but the Steelers and Panthers aren't going to be their most difficult opponents. In fact, their schedule should be tougher, but they pissed away basically every close game they should have won last season.
Unfortunately, the Falcons are set to face teams like the Detroit Lions, Cincinnati Bengals, Baltimore Ravens, and Kansas City Chiefs: playoff-caliber rosters who had down seasons in 2025. The Lions' offense is elite and Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, and Patrick Mahomes always make for a long day.
But even with that in mind, Atlanta is in a good spot. The NFC South is as wide open as it's been in quite some time, and they have a third-place schedule. The team to worry about is the Saints, who boast a last-place schedule and the second-easiest schedule in the NFL according to this graphic.
Instead of facing the San Francisco 49ers and Washington Commanders like the Falcons, the Saints get the Arizona Cardinals and the New York Giants. The Giants are definitely better than them, but Arizona is in the running to be one of the worst teams in the NFL, and them being an easier game counts in a tight division race. And they'll host a game in Madrid.
Facing the AFC North and NFC North is tough, since both divisions are pretty strong, but the Falcons are going to be a tough out for any team on any given Sunday. It doesn't matter what how much elite talent they go up against, they have the talent to match that and the coaching staff to maximize it.
While this is a promising update, games aren't won on paper, so unless Stefanski and this coaching staff iron out most of of the issues that plagued Atlanta under Raheem Morris, it's best not to get ahead of ourselves in saying the Falcons will win the NFC South, even with an easier schedule.
But with that in mind, seeing this team break their eight-year playoff drought in 2026 is very much in the realm of possibility.
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