For as much as Atlanta Falcons fans want to see Michael Penix Jr. cement himself as the team's long-term future at the quarterback position, that'll be easier said than done. Not only does he have to stay healthy long enough to be truly evaluated, even when healthy more consistency from him is needed.
Nothing is given for Penix anymore, everything has to be earned. The Falcons brought in Tua Tagovailoa to compete with him for the starting job, and the QB battle has yet to truly begin because Penix--coming off his third ACL tear in seven years-- isn't even healthy enough to make it a fair fight.
The 26-year-old is ramping up in his recovery from his partially-torn ACL suffered in late November, and his health is still making for the biggest question mark about Atlanta's QB situation. But even if he's healthy, his development (or lack thereof) is the biggest concern within the Falcons' QB room.
A healthy Michael Penix Jr. could lose the starting job to Tua Tagovailoa
Even ESPN's Dan Graziano knows the third-year signal-caller comes with significantly more questions than answers at this point of his career. And while he was going over QB questions for all 32 NFL teams, he questioned if Penix's future with the Dirty Birds is in more jeopardy than we realize.
"The new regime carries no draft-based loyalty to Penix," Graziano wrote. "Atlanta signed former Dolphins starter Tua Tagovailoa, and right now he's the healthier of the two players."
Here's the argument: the new regime didn't hand-pick Penix. They inherited him. Meanwhile, Kevin Stefanski chose to sign Tua Tagovailoa for the veteran minimum in free agency. The 2024 first-rounder is making more money on his rookie deal, but that's more because of the dead money Tua is receiving from the Miami Dolphins.
"Could Tagovailoa show enough this summer to become the favorite to start, even once Penix is healthy again? And if so, does that mean Penix's long-term future is already in doubt? New coach Kevin Stefanski went through more than his share of QB competitions and questions in Cleveland. He'd surely like some clarity here sooner rather than later."
Graziano makes an interesting point. We know how much Stefanski values accuracy from a quarterback, and Tua is the much more accurate passer. But not only that, the ex-Pro Bowler is also the healthier of the two, so it's riskier for the Falcons to start Penix to begin the season over Tua.
A consensus has been quietly growing that the Falcons will start the 28-year-old in Week 1 and keep the Washington product waiting in the wings until Tagovailoa either struggles or gets injured. But there's a real world where Tua turns his career around in Atlanta and Penix never even gets his shot.
The Falcons want to (and should) see things through with Penix. 12 starts isn't enough of a sample size to evaluate your franchise QB, and while he could very well thrive in the new system, even a healthy Michael Penix Jr. will face an uphill battle in getting on the field early on in 2026.
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