Much like Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield in the past, Tua Tagovailoa is entering a pivotal point in his NFL career.
The former first-round pick had success early in his career, but then injuries and ineffective play hit. The Miami Dolphins took a massive cap hit by moving on from him this offseason, and now he is an Atlanta Falcon.
He is entering an important year in his NFL career; his opportunities are dwindling. Beating out Michael Penix Jr. in training camp, or whenever he returns from injury, and playing well enough to keep his starting job will be vital to keeping his career as a starting quarterback alive.
The assessment from 680 The Fan is correct; no team will give him a fair opportunity to start next year and beyond if he can't beat out his fellow former first-round pick, let alone prove himself as at least adequate with the Falcons in 2026. But at least he would be one of the best backup QBs.
Tua Tagovailoa has banked his entire career on a one-year deal with the Falcons
No matter how you look at it, this is the year for Tua has to prove he can lead an NFL team. He is on a one-year, veteran-minimum contract on a team that has uncertainty at the position, and he is trying to get off the struggle bus. And the situation in Atlanta lines up perfectly to trigger a career revival.
NFL teams are always looking for the next new thing; not what used to be hot. If a team needs quarterback, they are likely to look to the draft to fix the problem. That is why Tua has to perform with the Dirty Birds. He can either morph into the next Darnold or Mayfield, or be the next Zach Wilson.
There is also the unfortunate truth that the Falcons, despite having a new front office and coaching staff, have more investment in Penix Jr.
The Falcons future at quarterback can go two ways: Tua performs well and lands a new contract next season, while Penix Jr.'s future goes down the drain. Or the 25-year-old starts and Tua's contract expires next offseason with no financial consequences for the Dirty Birds.
The only way this blows up in their face if Tua is bad is if Penix struggles too and the Falcons are forced to draft a QB in 2027. But in a generational QB class, there are worse outcomes.
The point being, starting Tua will create more problems in the future than starting his counterpart. You would have to pay him next offseason and figure out what to do with their rookie-contract quarterback. On the flip side, starting Penix Jr. gives the new staff more flexibility in the future.
The one advantage the newcomer has is he'll get a jumpstart on the year with his healthy billing. No matter what, this will be an interesting training camp and preseason as Kevin Stefanski and Tommy Rees figure out who will lead their team come Week 1. Careers are on the line for both signal-callers.