After the Atlanta Falcons signed Tua Tagovailoa, we learned that he would be pushing Michael Penix Jr. for the starting the job. While they'll compete to be QB1 in training camp, it seems like Tagovailoa has a leg up because Penix is currently recovering from a partially-torn ACL suffered in November.
Just because he's the early favorite to start doesn't mean it'll stay that way. Once he starts again, he'll be fighting an uphill battle in hopes of re-establishing himself as an NFL starter. On Wednesday's episode of Get Up, ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky said he thinks Tua has a short leash as Atlanta's QB1.
""You get till November, if you're Tua, to prove that you can be at least in the conversation for the future as their starting quarterback.""Dan Orlovsky
While the former NFL QB revealed he thinks the 28-year-old landed in a great spot with the Falcons, Orlovsky doesn't think time is on his side if he wins the job. He admitted that he would give Tagovailoa until November to prove to this new regime that he has what it takes to be the future of the franchise.
Orlovsky's read is right, but he seems to have forgotten that Penix has just as much to prove and Kevin Stefanski and Ian Cunningham will be evaluating him too. If Tua struggles, they'll turn to Penix, but if they both struggle, that's when the possibility of drafting a QB in 2027 starts to take shape.
Tua Tagovailoa doesn't have a super long leash as the starting quarterback of the Atlanta Falcons
The ex-Pro Bowler led the NFL in completion percentage in 2024 and passing yards in 2023. Yes, 2025 was a disaster where he threw 15 picks and was benched for a seventh-round pick, but it wasn't too long ago that he was leading the Miami Dolphins to the playoffs. He deserves another shot with a change of scenery, especially in such a favorable situation on a cheap deal like in Atlanta.
We've seen quarterback revivals before when nobody saw them coming with players like Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold, so who's to say that Tua can't do the same? The bigger question is if he can stay consistently healthy, since he hasn't played in a complete 17-game season since 2023.
Stefanski endured QB issues throughout his time with the Cleveland Browns (and were ultimately what got him fired), so if anybody wants Tua to pan out, it's him. All the stars are aligned for the Alabama product to be great as a Falcons with a great OL, solid weapons, and a good coaching staff.
But even if things go as planned, Stefanski won't commit to him to be the QB of the future too soon. Worst case scenario, the Alabama product could just establish himself as a viable bridge starter while Penix transitions into a backup and the Falcons return to looking for a new franchise signal-caller.
Should things go awry on the Tua front, the Falcons are on the perfect timeline since the 2027 QB class is on track to be an all-timer. You have Arch Manning, Dante Moore, LaNorris Sellers, and Julian Sayin at the top, and even guys like Sam Leavitt, C.J. Carr, and Drew Mestemaker could put themselves on the first-round radar.
At least he's healthier than Penix currently, but we need to know if the hip injury that plagued him in 2025 is still an issue. If he wins the job and he's fine, Tua has a chance to quiet a lot of doubters. But if he fails miserably, expect the Falcons to do a lot of homework on the 2027 signal-callers I just named.