Now that the NFL schedule has been released, predictions on how the Atlanta Falcons will fare in 2026 have started to vary. Some see the Falcons as a team who will be picking inside the top 10 of the 2027 NFL Draft, while others think their roster is talented enough to be NFC South champions.
The fact of the matter is that any hopes of Atlanta's snapping their playoff drought in 2026 boil down to one very crucial thing: quarterback play. Michael Penix Jr. is ramping up in his ACL recovery, but he'll still have to battle it out with Tua Tagovailoa in training camp to become the Falcons' starting QB.
The Falcons are in a unique position where their Week 1 starter doesn't have to be the same guy who ends the season as QB1. It feels inevitable that Kevin Stefanski and this coaching staff will make a QB change at some point in 2026, the only question that persists is when that'll actually go down.
Will the Falcons make a quarterback change before their Week 11 bye?
Unlike last season, their bye week is a more accurate benchmark of when a change could happen. The Dirty Birds have a Week 11 bye, and I can see a scenario where Tagovailoa replaces Penix (or vice versa) either just before or just after their overseas trip that leads into their mid-November bye week.
Their final game before the bye week comes on Nov. 15 against the Kansas City Chiefs, so a QB change can either come after this game and leading into the bye week, after the bye entirely, or weeks prior. And it all boils down to what Stefanski thinks puts the Falcons in the best spot to win.
If Penix is 100% healthy through training camp, I wouldn't be surprised to see him be the Week 1 starter, but I think the more accurate scenario is Tua opening up the year as the starting quarterback, but is replaced once the 2024 first-rounder is either completely healthy or he starts to struggle.
The stretch of game is where I expect the Falcons to stumble the most, opening the door for a QB change.
Week 5: vs Baltimore Ravens (8:20 p.m. SNF)
Week 6: vs Chicago Bears (1:00 p.m.)
Week 7: vs. San Francisco 49ers (1:00 p.m.)
Week 8: at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1:00 p.m.)
Week 9: vs. Cincinnati Bengals (Madrid, 9:30 a.m.)
Week 10: vs. Kansas City Chiefs (1:00 p.m.)
That's six straight games against playoff-caliber teams, there's no way the QB room escapes this unscathed. Stefanski made two QB changes before Week 12 with the Cleveland Browns last year, so if the the team's playoff hopes take a hit, I know he's willing to switch things up unlike his predecessor.
The beauty of a Week 11 bye is that the schedule gets way easier after the bye week, so the Falcons can always start the guy they thinks will give them the best chance to win. Early on that could be Tua, but whether the former Heisman runner-up replaces him before or after the bye remains to be seen.
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