QB instability has been a constant for the Atlanta Falcons since Matt Ryan was traded back in 2022. But now that Matty Ice is back in Atlanta as a part of the front office, he's ensuring that the Falcons don't commit too much to Michael Penix Jr.-- which is why they signed Tua Tagovailoa in free agency.
The Falcons are in the midst of an eight-year playoff drought, which is currently the second-longest streak in the NFL. Only the New York Jets have missed the playoffs in more consecutive years. In fact, that streak has extended so long, Ryan was their quarterback the last time they made the playoffs. So hopefully that streak can end now that the 2026 schedule has been released. But it'll be tough.
The goal of this new regime is to snap that drought--whether that be with Penix or Tagovailoa lining up under center. However, not everyone is sold on the decision to sign Tua--even at an affordable price and his main competition, while ahead of schedule, is coming off his third ACL tear since the start of his college career.
The Falcons' 2026 playoff hopes depend on which Tua Tagovailoa they signed
Luckily, Bleacher Report's Alex Kay is in the minority. He labeled the Tua signing as one of the underrated moves that could dictate the direction of the 2026 NFL season, saying he expects the 28-year-old offers Atlanta upside to return to the playoffs, while stealing the QB1 job away from Penix.
"No deal agreed to during the 2026 offseason—or any other offseason in recent memory—offers a better cost-to-upside ratio than the one-year, $1.2 million contract that Tua Tagovailoa signed with the Atlanta Falcons," Kay wrote. "While Tagovailoa has struggled in recent seasons, he has all the tools to succeed following his release from the Miami Dolphins. His second act will begin behind Michael Penix Jr. on the depth chart, but it may not be long before Tagovailoa claims Atlanta's QB1 job."
Kay noted that the Dirty Birds brought in Tagovailoa as an insurance option behind their former first-round pick, but because of his injury concerns and Tua's pedigree, it may not take long before he assumes the starting role, but the more likely outcome is he wins the QB1 job in camp outright.
We all know signing the former first-round draft pick doesn't come without risks though. He threw 15 interceptions in 2025, but it wasn't all that long ago he was an MVP candidate and Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback who led the NFL in passing yards and completion percentage in back-to-back seasons.
"It remains to be seen if Tagovailoa can get back to that level after a pair of trying seasons and worrying concussion issues, but working alongside Pitts, London and Robinson under a brilliant offensive mind in new head coach Kevin Stefanski will be his best chance at redemption.
If Tagovailoa takes control of the offense and returns to form, the Falcons will be well-positioned to snap the league's second-longest playoff drought."
Kay realizes the Falcons have the head coach and the supporting cast in place to do damage in 2026. The only thing they're missing out on is competent QB play, and if Tua offers that, it's fair to assume Atlanta will be the team to beat in a wide-open NFC South and they will break the playoff drought.
With all of that upside for just $1.2 million, it's hard not to get amped up for Tua, especially when the Falcons are set to ignite a true QB battle in training camp. And in an elite situation, it's hard not to think the Alabama product will help elevate this Atlanta offense in a Daniel Jones or Sam Darnold-esque way that Penix never could, but may also show up in the win/loss column in 2026.
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