A schedule preview from Bleacher Report's Gary Davenport pegged the Atlanta Falcons' early season outlook as neither hot nor cold, instead perfectly mild--and if you're like me ordering chicken wings, that's the perfect spice level. Three of their first four opponents are playoff teams from a year ago.
- Week 1 at Pittsburgh
- Week 2 vs Carolina
- Week 3 at Green Bay (Thursday Night Football)
- Week 4 at New Orleans (Monday Night Football, Domecoming anniversary)
Sure, these are all winnable games. However, they won’t be easy. Three of four of them will be on the road, and the problem would be what a slow start does to this particular team. The Falcons are heading into 2026 with a new head coach, an unresolved quarterback battle, and a fanbase that hasn't seen a playoff game since 2017.
"There are a number of changes in Atlanta this year," Davenport wrote. "There's a new head coach in Kevin Stefanski. A quarterback battle brewing between Michael Penix Jr. and Tua Tagovailoa. The Falcons kick off the season with a schedule that is neither gravy nor graveyard—while three of Atlanta's first four games are against playoff teams from last year, two of those matchups (the Steelers and Panthers) are games the Falcons could win."
Kevin Stefanski takes over with a 45-56 record in Cleveland. Michael Penix Jr. is rehabbing his third ACL tear in eight years. Tua Tagovailoa was brought in this offseason to push for the starting job, but he brings his own lengthy injury history into the mix.
The first five weeks of the Falcons' 2026 season will determine their playoff hopes
That's a lot of uncertainty baked into a roster that can't afford a muddy start… Weeks 3 through 5 are all on primetime. Thursday night in Green Bay. Monday Night Football at New Orleans on the 20th anniversary of the Saints' return to the Superdome after Katrina.Â
Then Lamar Jackson and the Ravens on Sunday night. If Atlanta stumbles out at 1-2 heading into that stretch, the noise around the QB competition gets deafening fast. Look for those three straight primetime games to be the real proving ground for whoever is the QB to start the season.
Now Michael Penix Jr. was spotted throwing during Phase 2 workouts this week, the first time he's been seen with a ball since November. He says he'll be ready for week 1 but the organization has purposefully avoided saying the same thing.
So the "mild" start scenario might actually unfold with Tua Tagovailoa at the wheel, Penix watching from the sideline, and no one quite sure when (or if) the competition heats up. If the results are ugly, the quarterback question stops being a storyline and starts being a crisis.
The verdict
A hot start creates margin. A cold start gives you an excuse. A mild start? That’s where every single game feels like a referendum…
If Atlanta starts 3-1, the Stefanski hire looks brilliant and the quarterback situation looks manageable. If they start 1-3, the exact same stretch suddenly looks like proof the franchise is still stuck in mediocrity. That’s the danger of this label.
This label is about to test everything for the Atlanta Falcons.
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