The Atlanta Falcons may not officially have a starting quarterback yet, but ESPN analyst Louis Riddick already believes he knows how the competition will end.
"I'm putting my money on him winning this job," he said on ESPN's NFL Live. "If he can stay healthy, all things being equal, I think he's the better fit for the offense that Kevin (Stefanski) ideally would like to run."
Stefanski's offense leans on play-action and getting the ball to the running back, and that's exactly where Riddick sees Tua Tagovailoa's advantage over Michael Penix Jr..Â
Falcons minicamp has Louis Riddick doubling down on the Tua Tagovailoa hype
Bijan Robinson is the kind of weapon that scheme is built around, and Tagovailoa brings the resume to match: A league leading 4,624 passing yards in 2023, followed by a league best 72.9% completion rate in 2024.
But here's the catch: Tagovailoa's medical file reads like a checklist of every injury a quarterback can suffer, from a 2024 hip injury that cost him two games to multiple documented concussions to fractures in his finger, pelvis and ribs.
That history is exactly why "all things being equal" carries so much weight in Riddick's prediction. It's not a full endorsement so much as a conditional one, and it means this job stays open until Tagovailoa proves he can hold up through camp and the season.
The early returns support the optimism. TuaTagovailoa turned in arguably one of his best practices of the spring during the Falcons' final minicamp session, going 3 for 3 in an 11-on-11 red zone period capped by a touchdown to Robinson over the middle.
Michael Penix Jr., meanwhile, remains limited.Â
He did not participate in full team periods on Day 1 of mandatory minicamp as he continues working back from last November's ACL surgery, still seven months removed from going under the knife. Stefanski has stayed measured about the timeline, saying he's "very pleased with the work" Penix has put in, but praise for the rehab process isn't the same as clearance for full contact.
Riddick's pick matches where this competition is actually trending… Tagovailoa is getting the reps, the weapons and the head coach's praise, while Penix's recovery keeps him from closing that gap until he's medically cleared for full team work.
The warning isn't a knock on Tagovailoa's talent. It's a reminder that this job has slipped through his hands before, and the Atlanta Falcons are betting a fresh start is enough to break that pattern.
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