For most of the offseason, the Atlanta Falcons’ quarterback situation has been treated like the defining storyline of the NFC South. Michael Penix Jr. is returning from another major injury. Tua Tagovailoa was brought in to compete for the starting job. Kevin Stefanski is installing a new offense.
Analysts continue debating whether Penix fits the system long term, whether Tua can rediscover his Pro Bowl form, and whether Atlanta can survive another season of quarterback uncertainty and waste another season of this young core.
And yet, Bleacher Report’s Moe Moton pointed directly at Kellen Moore’s offense around Tyler Shough as the biggest X-factor that could shape the NFC South title race in 2026. On the surface, the logic is understandable. Shough flashed real upside late last season, and New Orleans spent the offseason aggressively building around him.
Tyler Shough's Year 2 leap is believed to affect the NFC South standings more than the Falcons' QB battle
The Saints placed Shough in a great situation. They added Travis Etienne to improve one of the NFL’s weakest rushing attacks, signed guard David Edwards for interior stability, drafted multiple receivers including first-round pick Jordyn Tyson, and expanded the TE room with Noah Fant and Oscar Delp.
If all of it clicks, New Orleans suddenly has a much more modern and explosive offense than the version Falcons fans watched struggle through stretches of 2025. But the fact the Saints offense, not Atlanta’s QB battle, is being labeled the swing factor of the division reveals something important…
The Falcons are still viewed as stable enough everywhere else that their uncertainty at quarterback no longer feels uniquely dangerous. Atlanta still has one of the league’s better offensive lines anchored by Chris Lindstrom. Bijan Robinson is an absolute beast. Drake London is a true WR1.
The defense finally showed signs of becoming functional last season, and Stefanski’s arrival gives the organization credibility offensively even amid the uncertainty under center. Meanwhile, the Saints are essentially being projected as an all-or-nothing offense. That’s what makes the “X-factor” label so interesting.
If Tyler Shough takes a legitimate Year 2 leap, if Kellen Moore rediscovers the rhythm that made his Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles offenses dangerous, if the rebuilt rushing attack unlocks more effective play action, then New Orleans could absolutely become a real threat in the NFC South.
But that is a lot of “ifs.” That’s why the Falcons’ situation, messy as it may appear externally, might actually be more trustworthy. Penix does not need to become an MVP-level quarterback for Atlanta to win the division. Neither does Tagovailoa. The Falcons simply need competent quarterback play paired with the roster talent they already have.
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