The 2026 NFL Draft will mark Ian Cunningham's first NFL Draft as the general manager of the Atlanta Falcons, and he'll have his work cut out for him. With no first-round pick, the Falcons won't make their first selection until the middle of the second round, where they are selecting at 48th overall.
To make matters even worse, Atlanta boasts just five 2026 draft picks at the moment, so unless Cunningham starts wheeling and dealing during the draft, they enter draft week at a disadvantage. But the lack of draft capital also should add pressure on this new regime to hit on their 2026 picks.
The Dirty Birds have so many needs on the roster that fans really don't know what to expect on Friday night, so I'd liken it to one of those choose your own adventure books. But with draft speculation set to reach its peak in the coming days, fans will have a hard time navigating the waters, especially in determining which rumors to believe and what not to.
Where do these three potential Falcons' draftees fall on the NFL Draft Smoke Meter?
For that reason, we at FanSided are introducing the Smoke Meter, which should help fans navigate the eruption of NFL Draft information set to release over the next couple of days, while also making sense of what to believe and what is a carefully-designed smokescreen set up by the national media.
Let's go over how things work. Just like a regular 1-10 scale, 1 is the lowest rating on the Smoke Meter (this is a report where there's nothing really there) while 10 has the highest chance of happening. So in regards to these 3 Falcons' prospects, here's where they fall on the Smoke Meter.
Smoke Meter Rating | Meaning |
|---|---|
1: Just a spark | Not likely at all, a mere thought |
2: A flicker | Curiosity peaked, a "long shot" |
3: Small ember | Fits a need, but not a priority player |
4: Steady burn | Fits need, could see a path of acquisition |
5: Turning up the Heat | Quality prospect, realistic choice |
6: Stove's on High | Quality prospect, one of priority choices |
7: Roasting Temperature | Quality prospect, could be picked if there |
8: Very hot | Quality prospect, highly sought-after |
9: Scalding | Premium talent, team's top-3 option |
10: Full blaze | Premium talent, team's dream draft target |
Georgia DT Christen Miller
Frankly, this spot could have went to any of Christen Miller, Lee Hunter, or Caleb Banks, but you already know I had to settle on the Georgia product. But not only would keeping him in-state be cool, he would be the perfect nose tackle to complement an Atlanta defensive line that's only improving.
Even though the 21-year-old struggles as a pass-rusher, he doesn't need to be one with the Falcons. He's an elite run defender who would instantly stabilize one of the league-worst run defenses, so as a long-term David Onyemata replacement, Miller dropping to the middle of Day 2 is a dream scenario.
The only question that remains is if Miller will drop all the way to 48, because if he does, the Falcons should run that pick up to the podium, especially after the Ruke Orhorhoro trade.
Smoke Meter Rating: 9
Texas Tech LB Jacob Rodriguez
Jacob Rodriguez is one of the most divisive prospects in the 2026 NFL Draft. After creating 10 turnovers for Texas Tech in 2025 en route to a fifth-place finish in Heisman Trophy voting, many have a first-round grade on Rodriguez, while others don't even see him as a top 60 prospect in the draft.
The Falcons need to add linebacker help after losing Kaden Elliss in free agency, and as far as LB prospects go, the Butkus Award winner has a very similar jack-of-all-trades play style. They signed Christian Harris and Channing Tindall in free agency, but neither should stop them from taking J-Rod.
The talent is undeniable, but Rodriguez is entering his age-24 season and his 6-foot-1 frame with under 31-inch arms is incredibly undersized for the NFL level. So while he feels a need and is an obecjtively talented player, I could see him being the pick at 48, but I wouldn't count my blessings.
Smoke Meter Rating: 4
Clemson CB Avieon Terrell
Behind A.J. Terrell, the Falcons badly need cornerback help. Mike Hughes is not cutting it as a CB2, and they made no big moves at the position, so Atlanta should be looking for Hughes' long-term successor. And who would be better suited to be Terrell's running mate than his little brother Avieon?
Avieon boasts many of the same traits that have made A.J. one of the best cornebacks in the NFL. He's physical at the catch point, doesn't surrender many big plays, and is incredibly technically sound. Terrell is a first-round talent, but a tweaked hamstring has him likely to be picked early on Day 2 now.
It's pretty clear that the front office doesn't see cornerback as as big of a need as the fanbase does, but if Terrell's medicals somehow drop him to 48, they'd certainly be more inclined to draft him over a Brandon Cisse or Treydan Stukes. And no fan should be complaining if the family reunion comes true.
Smoke Meter Rating: 6
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