The Atlanta Falcons enter 2026 with a vast range of outcomes. The NFC South is as wide open as it gets, so being crowned division champs and breaking an eight-year playoff drought or finishing in last place are very much in the realm of possibility for the Falcons in Year 1 of the Kevin Stefanski era.
However, Atlanta has already started to be written off as a team who doesn't have much aspirations this season. Nobody expects much out of Michael Penix Jr. or Tua Tagovailoa despite a highly- talented supporting cast, and that has the Falcons starting to look like the perfect underdog story.
While Bleacher Report's Moe Moton was predicting who he thinks will finish in last place, he thinks the DIrty Birds will finish in last in the NFC South, in large part due to the QB play. But rather than feeling disrespected by another less-than-glamorous prediction, it's nice to see them flying under the radar.
"The Atlanta Falcons have finished slightly below .500 with seven or eight wins every season since 2021," Moton wrote. "While two-time Coach of the Year Kevin Stefanski brings experience and credibility, he can only do so much with two mid-to-low-tier starting quarterbacks."
The Falcons are perfectly-set up to raise lowered expectations in 2026
The nice part about low expectations is that it makes it easier for the Falcons to surprise people this season. It's hard to understate how much they upgraded going from Raheem Morris to Stefanski, and the offensive staff as a whole is quietly setting up whoever wins the QB competition for a better year.
Atlanta went 8-9 last season despite countless one-score losses, which were attributed to poor coaching in clutch time. But just because they didn't make any flashy signings this offseason (which was due to a lack of cap space) and had no first-round pick, nobody's taking the Falcons seriously.
The NFC South came down to a three-way tie last season, who's to say Stefanski's squad won't be firmly in the mix again this season? Penix or Tua will be surrounded by a better offensive line and will be throwing to Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Jahan Dotson, and rookie Zachariah Branch.
For all the talk of most quarterbacks being a product of their situation nowadays, the Falcons have enough elite weapons to help Penix or Tua turn things around this year. And people are forgetting that the former was a top-10 pick two years ago and the latter was a Pro Bowl-level QB before last year.
And the defense had a franchise-record 57 sacks last season. Yes, they lost guys like Kaden Elliss and David Onyemata, but Atlanta brought in players like Sydney Brown, Maason Smith, Avieon Terrell, and Christian Harris to help Jeff Ulbrich's unit get younger and more athletic all over the formation.
Ultimately, it'll come down to the division games at the end of the year. The Falcons finish the season with NFC South matchups in their final three weeks of 2026, but Moton seems to believe that every other team in the division has more of a reason to be optimistic, saying Atlanta's win total will suffer.
"In the NFC South, the Falcons have less momentum than the Carolina Panthers and the New Orleans Saints heading into the 2026 season.... Atlanta drops to the bottom of the division with five or six wins."
Saying the Falcons will disapoint or finish last is one thing, but saying they'll win five or six games when they haven't won less than seven games since 2020. And Atlanta has only one season since 2015 where they won less than seven games, so that's a pretty wild chip on your shoulder to have.
Let's look at this roster and tell me this team doesn't have a real shot to win one of the worst divisions in the NFL. It's just plain wrong. The more they're counted out, the more they morph into a team who is going to make Hollywood wish they could write an underdog story this captivating and inevitable.
All Moton's words are doing are offering Falcons fans the validation that they need: that this team has enough to be excited about, but they'll be playing with that underdog mentality that's bound to silence the hype buzzing about their rivals and finally snap the NFL's second-longest playoff drought.
Add us as a preferred source on Google