The Atlanta Falcons' quarterback competition is set to be the talk of the town once training camp begins later this month. Everyone wants to know if Michael Penix Jr. or Tua Tagovailoa will get the nod as the Week 1 starter, and it's anyone's guess given this QB battle is as wide open as it gets right now.
Here's the thing though. At the moment it's believed that Tua Tagovailoa is the favorite to be the Week 1 starter currently, the Falcons are waiting to evaluate the two signal-callers until they're both 100% healthy. And right now, Penix still has a ways to go as he continues to recover from a part-torn ACL.
With Penix yet to be cleared for full contact, Tagovailoa took most of the first-team reps during minicamp and OTAs, and like Rihanna would say, he shined bright like a diamond. He was one of the standouts of Atlanta's spring session, so the belief is that he has a small lead entering training camp.
Michael Penix Jr.'s health will help decide Tua Tagovailoa's Week 1 fate
While the Falcons' QB battle is being looked at as wide open, Bleacher Report's NFL insider James Palmer shed some light on the situation. He revealed that most are starting to pencil Tua in as the starter because he has a "slight edge", but Penix is still very much going to factor into this decision.
"Even though it's wide open, Tua's kind of the frontrunner with an asterisk," Palmer said. "And that's because Michael Penix has not been healthy enough to operate in all of the different situations you run during minicamp and OTAs. Through the sheer fact that Tua's had more reps with the first-team, has participated in more parts of practice, and the parts that Michael Penix is not allowed to because he has not been medically cleared, Tua does have a slight edge in some people's minds heading into training camp."
Tua making a strong impression in minicamp matters, but Kevin Stefanski isn't ready to come to a decision before training camp even begins. Penix was a top-10 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, and they're prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt-- if he can get healthy in the near future, that is.
Here's the difficult variable in the Penix/Tua situation: health. The 26-year-old is progressing in his rehab to the point that he's done more than even the Falcons have expected. But the one hurdle left to clear is being medically cleared for 11-on-11, and Palmer gave an update on his clearance timeline.
"Now, when does Michael Penix Jr become medically cleared? That's really a big part of this. My understanding is that there's a chance he could be medically cleared to participate in full at the start of training camp. If that's the case, that's a really big step for Michael Penix Jr. to make this as even as possible. The faster he gets on the field to take the exact same reps that Tua Tagovailoa is taking, the better his chances are. We'll see when he gets cleared, nobody is ruling out the start of training camp to my understanding."
Palmer said that there's a chance the 26-year-old could be medically cleared for full participation at the start of training camp, and if that happens, it's the best-case scenario for Penix. The sooner he gets back on the field and does the same as Tua, the easier it will be for Stefanski to evaluate them.
Once training camp begins, the Dirty Birds will split first-team reps between them, so the longer rehab takes for the third-year QB, the more he risks falling behind. He already has a gap to bridge in the accuracy department, and Tagovailoa has begun to develop a rapport with the weapons.
Both Michael Penix Jr. and Tua Tagovailoa will be under the microscope once the Atlanta Falcons begin training camp, but Penix's health will determine how much longer Tua has the lead in this QB battle.
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